Circana has released its Compass insights, providing an analysis of the global retail food and beverage (F&B) sector's performance in 2024, along with projections for 2025. According to Circana, dollar sales in 2024 are set to increase by 2.6%, with a price/mix growth of 1.6% and volume sales expected to rise by 1.1%.
The report noted, “As anticipated, growth in price/mix for 2024 has fallen short of historical averages due to modest base price increases being offset by rising promotional rates.”
Sally Lyons Wyatt, Circana's global executive vice president and chief advisor, commented, “Consumer demand for value is influencing both volume and price/mix growth. Channels that provide everyday value are becoming increasingly significant. Moreover, e-commerce is gaining traction, accounting for 35% of dollar sales growth in the food and beverage sector despite capturing only 10% of the market share. We also predict continued consumer interest in private label products.”
Looking ahead to 2025, Circana forecasts dollar sales growth in the F&B industry to range between 2.0% and 4.0%. Volume sales growth is expected to be modest, likely between 0% and 1%, driven by a continuing preference for at-home dining alongside improvements in foodservice traffic as more employees return to office settings.
Circana’s forecast is based on an anticipated moderate slowdown in economic conditions, which includes softer GDP growth and disposable income in 2025 compared to 2024, along with a slightly weakening job market and stable consumer confidence.
The report suggests that the industry may experience a slight decline in volume growth as consumers opt to eat out more frequently. At the same time, a stronger price/mix is anticipated due to increased demand for premium dining experiences. However, if economic conditions are weaker than expected, this may reinforce preferences for in-home meals while causing a decrease in consumers' willingness to pay for premium products.